The Business Confidence Index (BCI) aggregates data from the Manufacturing Industry, Services, Trade, and Construction surveys. The segments covered by the surveys represent over 60% of the national economy.
Tendency surveys are statistical surveys conducted with the purpose of generating relevant information for monitoring the current situation and anticipating future events in the economy. The confidence indexes are the synthesis indexes of these surveys.
In addition to the BCI, the Present Business Situation (PSI-B) and Business Expectations (EI-B) subindices are also produced, depicting perceptions about the present moment and the degree of optimism with the near future (three to six months), respectively.
Access to the indexes, which are published monthly, is free. Other aspects of the business surveys are available in aggregated form to users of the FGV Confiança service.
Methodology:
Business Confidence Index (BCI): weighted aggregation of the confidence indexes of the four sectors surveyed by FGV: Manufacturing Industry, Services, Trade, and Construction.
Present Business Situation (PSI-B) / Business Expectations (EI-B): weighted aggregation of the indexes for the present situation/expectations of the four sectors surveyed by FGV: Manufacturing Industry, Services, Trade, and Construction.
Each index is then seasonally adjusted using the X-13 Arima Seats method, on a monthly basis, that is, with each new observation the seasonally adjusted historical series is revised. The indices are also standardized to reflect a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 10 in the period between July 2010 and June 2015.
Main Uses:
Anticipating short term economic developments.
Geographic Coverage:
National.
Frequency:
Monthly.
Historical Series:
January 2001.
