The Economic Uncertainty Indicator seeks to measure uncertainty in the Brazilian economy based on information collected from the country's main newspapers and financial market expectations in relation to macroeconomic variables.
Applicability:
Empirical evidence shows that uncertainty shocks can generate negative impacts both on companies and families, as they discourage investment, inhibit production, and reduce the propensity to consume. In addition, increased economic uncertainty reduces the efficacy of monetary policy. Preliminary results for Brazil show that interest rate increases, for example, have a reduced effect on inflation control during times of great uncertainty.
Access to the Economic Uncertainty Indicator (EUI-Br), which is published monthly, is free. The EUI-Br was launched for the benefit of the public on the IBRE Portal (in report format) and in the historical series of the FGV DATA product. Click here to find out more.
Methodology:
The Economy Uncertainty Index is composed of two indicators:
• The Indicator of Uncertainty in the Media (EUI-Br-Media): This reflects the incidence of terms related to uncertainty in articles published in six of Brazil’s main newspapers. Approximately 30 thousand items of news are analyzed each month. This indicator has a weight of 80% in the aggregated indicator.
• The Indicator of Expectation Dispersion (EUI-Br-Expectation): Elaborated based on the dispersion of specialist forecasts for three macroeconomic variables: exchange and Interest (Selic) rates, 12 months ahead, and the accumulated BCPI (Broad Consumer Price Index) for the next 12 months, which are published by the Central Bank. This indicator has a weight of 20% in the aggregated indicator.
Calculation of the Uncertainty Index:
EUI-BR = EUI-Br-Media * 0,8 + EUI-Br-Expectation * 0,2
