GDP Monitor

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GDP Monitor

The FGV's GDP monitor estimates monthly the Brazilian GDP in volume. The purpose of its creation was to provide the society a monthly indicator of GDP, based on the same methodology of the National Accounts by the IBGE. Its series began in 2000 and incorporates all available information in the National Accounts by the IBGE (Tables of Features and Uses, by 2014, the last year of disclosure) as well as the information of IBGE’s Qua-GDP, until the last quarter reported (third quarter of 2016).

The indicator is set to Qua-GDP by the IBGE, whenever there are methodological changes, and every quarter as they are disclosed. That is, in the calendar quarters, the quarterly averages of volume indices of FGV's GDP Monitor will be equal to the quarterly indicators, seasonally adjusted, from the IBGE’s Qua-GDP. In the calendar quarters, the same models of IBGE seasonal adjustment are applied to calculate all disaggregated and seasonally adjusted series, from both the perspective of supply, and demand. For the monthly seasonal adjustment it is used the monthly model from IBC-Br; for moving quarters it is used an average of these monthly adjustments.

Thus the GDP-FGV Monitor antecedes the Qua-GDP of IBGE in the months in which it is disclosed. In the months when there is no disclosure, the Monitor is an excellent proxy for GDP trends and its components.

The FGV's GDP Monitor consists of a report describing the main results with graphic illustrations and an Excel table with information from 12 economic activities which, grouped, form the three activity sectors (agriculture, industry and services). It presents the Value Added at basic prices, the taxes on goods and GDP. It also presents the components of GDP from the perspective of demand. Another point to highlight is that the monitor provides disaggregations not disclosed by IBGE, but that are relevant to a better understanding of domestic absorption and external demand. Disaggregations provided by the Monitor are:

Household Consumption: durable goods, semi-durable goods, non-durable goods and services. Additionally they are classified into domestic and imported;

Gross fixed capital formation: in machinery & equipment, construction and others. For machinery & equipment and other, there is a disaggregation between domestic and imported;

Exports and Imports: in agricultural products, mining products, industrial consumer goods (durable, semi-durable and non-durable), industrial products of intermediate use, capital goods and services.

It is disclosed the mobile base series, chained series, chained series seasonally adjusted, monthly, quarterly and annual rates, compared to the same period in the previous year, as well as the monthly and quarterly rates compared to the immediately previous period