Barometers on the rise

The Coincident Global Economic Barometer increases by 2.5 points to 94.5 points in January, remaining below the 100-point mark. The Leading Barometer increases by 5.1 points to 111.1 points, its highest level since August 2021 (116.8 points). In both cases, the Asia, Pacific & Africa region is the main contributor to the increase, while the Western Hemisphere makes a modest positive contribution and the indicators for Europe move in the opposite direction. With the stronger increase in the Leading Barometer for the second consecutive month, the difference between the two indicators is now 16.6 points, the largest since November 2020 (19.0 pts.).

“Despite the continuing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the expected slowdown in the USA, the Global Barometers remain in an upward phase, with the improved economic environment in Asia standing out. The record distance between the two indicators, however, recommends caution. The Coincident Barometer remains below the mean for the last ten years, while the Leading Barometer indicates a level of optimism that makes sense for the horizon relevant to the survey (three to six months ahead) but seems unlikely to be sustained throughout the year”, analyses Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors 

The indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes 2.2 points to the 2.5-point increase in the Coincident Barometer in January, the Western Hemisphere contributes 0.4 points, while Europe is a negative contributor with -0.1 points. The regional coincident indicators point to a relatively resilient global economy, despite the efforts to contain inflation in some countries and some signs of slowdown in the Chinese economy.(the graph below shows the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from its historical average of 100 points). 

Among the Coincident sector indicators, the Services sector rises strongly, followed by Industry and Economy (aggregated business and consumer assessments). Construction moves in the opposite direction, while Trade (retail and wholesale) remains unchanged this month, breaking a streak of six consecutive increases.


Leading Barometer – regions and sectors   

The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. In January, the regional contributions to the indicator follow a similar path to the Coincident Barometer. The Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes 5.3 points to the indicator, the Western Hemisphere 0.3 points and Europe -0.5 points. Within this framework, the indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region stands out from the other regions and signals an extremely positive outlook for the growth of activities in the coming period.

In January, all the Leading sector indicators rise, with Construction and Trade standing out. All indicators are at their highest levels since the second half of 2021, reflecting a broadly positive outlook for the months ahead.