After three consecutive increases, the Leading Barometer fell slightly, although it remained above average. The decline in the Coincident Barometer was even smaller. As a result, the indicator remains within the narrow range in which it has been fluctuating since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the slight decline in the Global Barometers in July currently does not mark a turning point at the moment.
The Coincident Global Economic Barometer decreases 0.9 points in July, to 92.8 points. Meanwhile, the Leading Barometer loses 1.5 points to reach 102.4 points. The fall in the Coincident Barometer is almost entirely driven by the decline in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region. However, the decrease in the Leading barometer is the result of losses in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and Europe, which
counterbalanced by an increase observed in the Western Hemisphere.
“On the whole, the result for the Global Barometers in July changes little in the scenario of moderate growth for the world economy in 2024. The breakdown by regions, however, shows a less favourable situation for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, under the influence of China running out of steam, although this has been at least partially compensated by the resilient growth of the Western hemisphere and
Europe,” evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE.
