The Global Barometers record a decline, but overall, they are still in line with the tendency towards relative stability observed over the course of this year. The decline brings the Leading Barometer closer to the neutral level of 100 points, while the Coincident Barometer is moving away from this band.
The Coincident Global Economic Barometer decreases 2.3 points in September, to 91.5 points, its lowest level since November 2023 (90.5 pts), while the Leading Barometer loses 2.6 points, to reach 100.6 points. The fall in the Coincident Barometer was entirely driven by the result of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, whereas the result of the Leading Barometer was driven by the three surveyed regions.
“After the increase of the previous month, the worsening of the Global Barometers in this edition reinforces the perception of weak growth for the year, mainly driven by a worsening of the current and future evaluations in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region. In parallel, the North American economy is sending dubious signals in relation to activity for the coming months, with uncertainties surrounding monetary policy given the data on inflation and the labour market. Among the sectors, while the corporate sector remains relatively resilient, consumer perception indicates a certain despondency during the year”, evaluates Anna Carolina Gouveia, researcher of FGV IBRE.