The Global Barometers fall slightly in February consolidating the baseline reached since December 2021. Back then, the indices rose following five months of significant losses. The coincident indicator signals a still above average pace for the global economy in the first months of 2022. The leading indicator indicates a continuing normalisation.
The Coincident Global Economic Barometer falls 0.3 points in February, to 107.9 points, while the Leading Global Economic Barometer decreases 0.2 points, to 99.6 points. The Coincident Barometer development was mainly influenced by the Western Hemisphere, while the Leading Barometer result was determined by the Asia, Pacific, and Africa region.
“The Coincident Barometer remained relatively stable in the first two months of 2022 signalling continued growth in the level of activities. At the same time, the Leading Barometer indicates that this growth is unlikely to significantly accelerate in the coming months, given the context in which supply chain problems are yet to be completely overcome and monetary policy around the world moving towards prioritizing the fight against inflation”, evaluates Paulo Picchetti, researcher of FGV IBRE.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
In February 2022, the regional indicators develop heterogeneously. Only the indicator for the Western Hemisphere contributes negatively to the decrease in the Coincident Global Barometer, with -0.8 points, while Europe remains stable, and the Asia, Pacific, and Africa region contributes positively with 0.5 points for the month. Despite the null contribution from Europe to the monthly result, its regional indicator remains the highest among the three regions, at 112 points. The graph below illustrates the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from the historical average of 100 points.
Only the indicator Economy, which is based on variables representing overall business and consumer evaluations, decreases in February. The indicators representing more specific business sectors present positive developments for the month. This holds especially for Trade, which increases 6.0 points thereby reaching a level just below that of Industry. This is the first time since May 2017 that the indicator for the general state of the Economy records the lowest level among all sectors.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. Only the Asia, Pacific and Africa region contributes negatively to the development of the Leading Barometer in February 2022, with -2.1 points. The Western Hemisphere contributes positively, with 1.6 points, followed by Europe with 0.3 points. This is the first positive contribution of the Western Hemisphere since May 2021.
Three of the five Leading sector indicators are decreasing this month: Industry, Trade, and Services. The other two indicators record increases, with the indicator for the general state of the Economy standing out, with a rise of 8.0 points. Nevertheless, the result continues to reflect a great divergence between the perceptions of businesses and consumers.