The Global Barometers have reversed the previous month’s decline, maintaining the tendency of relative stability observed in recent months. The Leading Barometer remains above the neutral level of 100 points despite losing some ground earlier this year. Meanwhile, the Coincident Barometer has remained stable, fluctuating in a narrow band around 94 points since the beginning of the year.
The Coincident Global Economic Barometer increases 1.2 points in August, to 94.0 points, while the Leading Barometer gains 1.0 point, to reach 103.1 points. The increase in the Coincident Barometer is entirely due to the performance of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, while the increase in the Leading Barometer was driven by gains in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
“Although the data for this edition of the Global Barometers was collected before the announcement of the rise in the U.S. unemployment rate on 2nd August, which negatively impacted stock exchanges and other markets, the relative resilience displayed by the productive sectors up to July does not support a forced landing scenario for the American economy in the coming months. However, the shift in sentiment observed in the last week raises concerns about the relatively calm outlook previously anticipated, particularly regarding the potential change in business and consumer confidence in August”, evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE