The Leading Global Barometer rises in April, partially offsetting the substantial decline of the previous month to remain close to the neutral level of 100 points. The Coincident Barometer falls slightly this month, confirming that it peaked in January before pointing to a subsequent phase of rather sluggish global economic activity.
The Coincident Global Economic Barometer decreases 0.2 points this month, while the Leading Barometer gains 2.2 points, reaching 93.0 points and 101.2 points, respectively. The slight decrease in the Coincident Barometer is mainly due to by the decrease in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, while the increase in the Leading barometer is driven by rises in Europe and the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
“The Coincident Global Barometer signals the end of the phase of global growth acceleration observed until January 2024, though indications of a slowdown remain modest. The stabilization of the Leading Barometer near the 100-point threshold reflects uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of a potential global deceleration. Despite the increasing likelihood of a slowdown, recent months have seen the IMF and OECD revising their growth forecasts upwards, approaching rates similar to those of 2023, reflecting the world economy's stronger-than-expected performance earlier in the year “, evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The slight decrease in the Coincident Barometer in April is the result of negative contribution of 0.4-points from the indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, which is partially offset by positive contributions from the Western Hemisphere and Europe, both of 0.1 points. The regional indicators for Europe and the Asia, Pacific & Africa region remained relatively stable in 2024, cooling off the rate of improvement seen in 2023, when they gained 13.2 and 10.5 points, respectively. In contrast, the Western Hemisphere maintains a tendency of slight increase and remains at the highest level among the regions. All the regional coincident indicators continue to fluctuate in the 90-point band, signalling a moderate level of global economic activity. The graph below illustrates the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from its historical mean of 100 points.
The development of the Coincident sector indicators in April is heterogenous, with an increase in Trade, a slight drop in Industry and Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations), and more pronounced decreases in Services and Construction. With these results, Industry remains at the highest level among the sectors, followed by Trade.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. In April, Europe and the Asia, Pacific & Africa region contribute 1.2 and 1.0 points, respectively, to the increase in the global indicator, while the Western Hemisphere makes a null contribution. The indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region is still the worst performer in 2024 after having been the regional indicator with the largest gains last year, reflecting reduced optimism. The expectations for Europe and the Western Hemisphere also indicate a slight cooling off of the optimism up to the end of 2023. Nevertheless, all the regional indicators remain above 100 points.
In April, among the Leading sector indicators, Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations), Industry, and Trade increase, partially offsetting the declines of the previous two months. The indicator for Construction, however, accentuates the negative tendency after its third consecutive fall to approach the neutral level of 100 points.