Global Barometers show upward corrections

The Global Barometers increase in February for the first time since November 2022 across all regions, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region standing out for the improved climate in the region.

In February 2023, the Coincident Global Economic Barometer rises 6.2 points to 83.3 points. The Leading Global Economic Barometer increases 11.2 points to 90.5 points, the highest level since March 2022. With this result, the Coincident Barometer recovers almost 50% of the loses recorded in the previous three months, while the Leading Barometer recovers more than 100% of the loses in the same period. The increase in both indicators is to a large extent driven by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.

“The performance of the Global Barometers reflects the immediate impact and future perspectives of the end of the COVID-zero policy in China on the level of activities in the region and the rest of the world. The intensity of the energy crisis resulting from regional conflicts in Europe appears to be lower than first estimated, which also contributed to improved expectations. However, with the trajectory of rising prices around the world, the challenges to monetary policy continue, which means there remains a prospect of a slowdown in the level of activities over the year”, evaluates Paulo Picchetti, researcher of FGV IBRE.

Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors

In February, the Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes 5.0 points to the 6.2-point increase in the Coincident indicator, the Western Hemisphere 0.8 points, and Europe 0.5 points. The rise in the regional indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region reflects the reopening of the Chinese economy, with the end of the Covid zero policy, and the impact of this opening in other countries in the region. The graph below illustrates the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from the historical mean of 100 points.

All the coincident sector indicators increase in February 2023, which has not happened since March of 2021. The Services sector records the highest level among the sectors for the third month in a row.

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors  

The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. The Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributes 8.6 points to the 11.2-point rise in the indicator in February after four months of heading in the opposite direction. Europe and the Western Hemisphere also contribute positively, but to a lesser extent, with 1.7 and 0.8 points, respectively.

All the Leading indicator sectors increase in February, with Industry standing out with a rise of almost 14 points for the month. As in the case of the Coincident indicator, Construction has the lowest level among the sectors, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for the coming months.