The decrease in the Global Barometers in January suggests a pullback after the rise recorded in the last quarter of 2024. With the decline, the Coincident Barometer is moving away from the 100-point mark. However, the Leading Barometer remains above 100 points, indicating a continued positive outlook for the performance of the world economy in the first half of 2025.
In January, the Coincident Global Barometer decreases by 2.1 points to 94.3 points, while the Leading Barometer breaks a streak of three consecutive increases, and decreases by 2.3 points this month to 102.8 points. These movements reflect declines in both indicators for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and a fall in the Leading indicator for Europe. The Western Hemisphere is now at the highest level among the regions for both the Coincident and the Leading Barometer.
“The fall in the Global Barometers in January reflects a tempering of the optimism in respect to the potential for global economic growth in 2025. Nevertheless, the scenario remains favourable with similar growth expectations to last year, forecasting slowdowns in the United States and China and acceleration in Europe and the group of emerging countries. Attention should be paid, however, to a potential increase in uncertainty, driven by the promise of significant changes in the economic policy of the USA and the persistent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East”, evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE.