The Leading Economic Index Declined in March

The Leading Economic Index Declined in March

The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, released by FGV in partnership with The Conference Board, decreased by 1.3 percent to 116.4 in March. Six out of the eight component series contributed to the decline of the Index, with the largest negative contributions coming from the Consumer and Services Sector Expectations Indexes, which decreased 9.7 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Brazil, which measures current economic conditions, increased 0.2 percent to 103.2 in March.

“The significant drop in the expectation components of the LEI in March suggest that the pace of recovery will most likely not pickup in the coming months” according to Paulo Picchetti at FGV IBRE. “While current economic activity increased in March, dampened confidence reinforces the perception of a slow recovery”, added Picchetti.

The Leading Economic Index aggregates eight economic components that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of them individually has proved efficient in anticipating economic trends. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out the so-called "noise," contributing to the effective economic trend to be revealed.

About the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

FGV IBRE and The Conference Board launched the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Brazil in July 2013. With a series dating back to 1996, the LEI would have anticipated, reliably, all four recessions identified by the Brazilian Dating Committee of Economic Cycles (CODACE) during this period. This indicator allows Brazil to directly compare its business cycles with 11 other countries and regions already covered by The Conference Board: China, the United States, the Eurozone, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Korea, Spain and the UK.
The eight components of the Brazilian LEI are:

Pre-fixed DI swap reference rate – 1 year (Source: Brazil's Central Bank)
Ibovespa Stock Market Index (Source: BOVESPA - São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Expectations index of the Manufacturing Survey (Source: FGV IBRE)
Expectations index of the Services Survey (Source: FGV IBRE)
Expectations index of the Consumer Survey (Source: FGV IBRE)
Durable consumer goods - physical production index (Source: IBGE)
Terms of trade index (Source: FUNCEX)
Volume of Exports index (Source: FUNCEX)


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ABOUT FGV IBRE
Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre