Leading Global Barometer climbs above the 100-point average

The Leading Global Barometer rises for the fourth month in a row, moving more clearly into the over 100 points range, suggesting an above average acceleration in world economic growth over the next three to six months. The slight decline in the Coincident Barometer shows that this framework is likely to be reached gradually. 

The Coincident Global Economic Barometer falls 0.2 points in October to 89.2 points, while the Leading Barometer moves in the opposite direction and increases 1.5 points to 102.0 points, the highest level since September 2021 (108.5 pts.). In both cases, the results were mainly driven by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region. With this month’s results, the difference between the two Global Barometers is 12.8 points, the largest since April 2022 (14,1 points).

“The negative result of the Coincident Global Barometer in October is mostly due to an adjustment in the level of activity in the Asian economies, while the other regions maintained their trajectories of growth in the indicator. In the case of the Western Hemisphere, the resilience in the level of activity, the labour market, and of price rises has been creating expectations of maintaining or deepening restrictive monetary policy, which explains the negative contribution of the region to the Leading Global Barometer”, evaluates Paulo Picchetti, researcher of FGV IBRE.

Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors

The slight drop in the Coincident indicator was driven by the negative contribution of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, of -0.8 points, which was partly compensated by the positive contributions of Europe and the Western Hemisphere, with 0.5 and 0.1 points, respectively. This month, the Coincident indicator for the Western Hemisphere has the highest level among the regions, which last occurred in July 2021. This result may have been influenced by the resilience in economic activity in countries like Brazil and the United States. The graph on the press release illustrates the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from the historical mean of 100 points. 

The Coincident sector indicators evolve heterogeneously in October, with Services and Construction falling, Trade rising, and Industry and Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations) remaining stable.

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors   

The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. In October, the positive regional contributions come from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and the Europe, both with 1.0 point, while Western Hemisphere makes a negative contribution of -0.5 points. The level of the overall indicator suggests a more widespread perception of an acceleration in the growth rate over the coming months. While the bundle of indicators for the Asia, Pacific, Africa region is above average, it is below average for the Western Hemisphere. The one for Europe is on average.

In October, all the Leading sector indicators increase and reach levels above 100 points, with the exception of the Construction sector, where the indicator remains at an adverse level, below 90 points.