Leading Global Barometer continues to recover


The Leading Global Barometer rises for the third consecutive month in June, but it has not yet fully recovered from the losses of February and March. The Coincident Barometer remains relatively stable for the fourth month in a row.  

The Coincident Global Economic Barometer increases 0.2 points in June to 93.8 points, while the Leading Barometer gains 1.0 points, reaching 103.9 points. The slight rise in the Coincident Barometer is driven by improvements in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, while the Asia, Pacific & Africa region moves in the opposite direction. However, the increase in the Leading barometer is determined by rises in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region and Europe.

“The Global Barometers signal continued moderate growth for the world economy at the end of the first semester of 2024, influenced by the combination of improvements in the labour market, inflation gradually coming under control, and the decreased risk of recession in various countries. The expectations for the next 3 to 6 months are favourable, with signs of optimism in the three surveyed regions, especially Europe. This is a tendency that may be extended considering the announcement by the European Central Bank at the beginning of this month of the first cut in interest rates in the last five years”, evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE.


Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors

The slight increase in the Coincident Barometer in June is the result of positive contributions of 0.6 and 0.4 points, respectively, from Europe and the Western Hemisphere, whereas a negative contribution of 0.8 points is recorded from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region. Since the peak in January 2024, the indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region has maintained a decreasing tendency. In contrast, the indicators for the Western Hemisphere and Europe reached their highest level of the last two years in June, with both accumulating gains of more than 15 points in the last 12 months. The graph below illustrates the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from the historical mean of 100 points.

The performance of the Coincident sector indicators in June is heterogeneous, with an increase in Trade, a relative stable development in Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations) and Industry, and decreases in Construction and Services. Industry remains at the highest level among the sectors and Construction at the lowest.

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors  

The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average. In June, Europe and the Asia, Pacific & Africa region contribute 1.0 and 0.3 points, respectively, to the increase in the global indicator, while the Western Hemisphere records a negative contribution of -0.3 points. The indicator for Europe reaches its highest level since October 2021 (108.8 points). It is therefore the region with the most positive outlook.

​​​​​​​In June, the Leading sector indicators of Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations), Services, Trade, and Industry increase. The only indicator that is decreasing this month, and noticeably so, is Construction.