Leading Global Barometer signals a more favourable outlook for the coming months

The Coincident Global Economic Barometer increases by 1.7 points to 90.8 points in November, while the Leading Barometer rises by 0.6 points to 102.7 points, its highest level since September 2021 (108.4 points). All the regions have a positive impact on both indicators, except for Europe in the case of the Leading Barometer. The gap between the two Global Barometers remains more than 10 points for the third month in a row. 

“The global economy remains resilient in the fourth quarter of 2023, although performance is heterogeneous among regions. The acceleration captured by the Leading Global Barometer is expected to continue in the coming months, driven by the acceleration of Asian growth. But it is important to note the increase over the past few weeks of both the level of economic uncertainty with the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of a longer-than-expected cycle of monetary tightening in the United State”, evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE.

Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors 

The increase in the Coincident indicator was mainly driven by the contribution of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region with 1.2-point, followed by Europe and the Western Hemisphere with 0.4 and 0.2 points, respectively. All three regional indicators are in the 91-92 point range, suggesting a below-normal level of global activity due to the various economic challenges faced by several countries. The graph below illustrates the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from its historical average of 100 points. 

All Coincident sector indicators developed positively in November, with the exception of the Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations) indicator, which declined slightly. The (retail and wholesale) Trade indicator has been developing favourably since July of this year, pulling away from the other sectors.

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors

The Leading Global Barometer leads world economic growth by an average of three to six months. In November, the positive regional contributions are coming from the Western Hemisphere and the Asia, Pacific & Africa region with 0.5 and 0.3 points, respectively, while Europe is contributing negatively with 0.2 points. The level of the indicators suggests that the prospects for an acceleration in economic growth will become more widespread in the coming months, with the indicators for Europe and the Western Hemisphere hovering around the neutral level of 100 points and the indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region taking a more optimistic stance.

In November, the Leading sector indicators for Construction, Services, and Trade are increasing, while those for the Economy and Industry are decreasing. The indicators for Services and Trade reach their highest levels since the end of 2021, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming months.