Leading indicator declined in January

Leading indicator declined in January

The Leading Economic Index for Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), decreased 1.0 percent to 122.5 (2016=100) in January 2021. Of the eight components that comprise the index, six contributed negatively to the aggregate result. The largest negative contributions came from the Manufacturing Expectations Index and the Consumer Expectations Index. 

The Coincident Economic Index for Brazil (CEI) (FGV IBRE / TCB), which measures current economic conditions, increased by 0.1 percent to 101.0 (2016=100), in the same period.   

The logistical challenges since the launch of the immunization campaigns along with the emergence of several new variants of the virus, have had a negative impact on expectations, resulting in a decline in the LEI.”, states Paulo Picchetti of FGV IBRE. “Against this backdrop, the likelihood that the economic recovery will continue in the coming months depends on the ability to transform emergency measures into sustainable policies”, says Picchetti.

The Leading Economic Index aggregates eight components that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each has proved individually efficient in anticipating economic trends. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise”, smoothing out the volatility of individual components, and revealing the underlying economic trend.

The next press release will be published on Tuesday, March 16th 2021, at 11:00 A.M. (Rio de Janeiro time) 10:00 A.M. (New York time).