Leading Indicator rose in December

Leading Indicator rose in December

Rio de Janeiro, January 14th 2020... The Leading Economic Index for Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), increased 0.4 percent to 124.1 (2016=100) in December/2020. Of the eight components that comprise the index, five contributed positively to the aggregate result. The largest contribution came from the Ibovespa Stock Market Index, which increased by 9.3 percent.

The Coincident Economic Index for Brazil (CEI) (FGV IBRE / TCB), which measures current economic conditions, rose by 0.3 percent to 108.8 (2016=100), in the same period. 

In spite of  the worsening of the health crisis due to the resurgence of the pandemic, the gradual recovery in the level of economic activity remained intact, as reflected by the uptick in the December CEI”, states Paulo Picchetti of FGV IBRE. “Despite the termination of emergency assistance measures and the slow recovery of the labor market, the rollout of the immunization campaigns had a positive effect on executives’ and investors’ optimism, resulting in an increase in the LEI”, says Picchetti.

The Leading Economic Index aggregates eight components that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each has proved individually efficient in anticipating economic trends. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise”, smoothing out the volatility of individual components, and revealing the underlying economic trend.