The Brazilian Output Gap | 1980-2019


The present study analyses the evolution of the output gap in the Brazilian economy and its activities, between 1980 and the real time estimated gap for the second quarter of 2019. To calculate potential output, methods of Production Function, linear, quadratic and exponential trend extraction, moving averages of 4 and 8 quarters and the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter are used. The mean of all statistical metrics is used for analysis of the activity output gap. It was found that Brazil passed through one of its worst recessions between 2014 and 2016, which left the country in a more distant position from its potential output, with strongly negative output gaps in output and activity.