The Economic Climate Index (ECI) for Latin America decreases in the second quarter of 2022 in relation to the previous quarter and to the same period in 2021. The region’s economy is doing better than at the peak of the pandemic but has not managed to recover the levels of 2019.
The Global Barometers fall for the second consecutive month, reflecting negative factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, the COVID-19 responses in China and the worldwide very high inflation. The Coincident Barometer remains below the historical mean of 100 points, while the Leading Barometer drops further from the mean, reflecting the increased risk of a more pronounced slowdown in several countries.
The Global Barometers decrease in April, likely reflecting shocks such as the war in Ukraine and the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in China. The Coincident Barometer is now below the historical mean of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. In addition, the more noticeably drop in the Leading Barometer signals the perspective of a stronger deceleration in world growth for the coming months.
The Global Economic Barometers are dropping more sharply in March. This partly reflects the normalization of the global economy at the beginning of 2022 and is largely driven by changed assessments in Asia. The coincident indicator remains relatively strong, but the distancing of the leading indicator from the historical mean of 100 points may be a first sign of a stronger deceleration than previously forecast for the coming months.
The Economic Climate Index (ECI) for Latin America decreased by 1.6 points between the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, maintaining the negative trend observed in the previous quarter. The indicator had previously recorded five consecutive rises after reaching the lowest value in the historical series (41.7 points) in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
The Global Barometers fall slightly in February consolidating the baseline reached since December 2021. Back then, the indices rose following five months of significant losses. The coincident indicator signals a still above average pace for the global economy in the first months of 2022. The leading indicator indicates a continuing normalisation.
After declining throughout most of the second semester of 2021, the Global Economic Barometers rise in January for the second consecutive month. The Coincident Barometer remains above the historical mean, while the Leading Barometer returns to the neutral range of 100 points.
The lack of confidence in the government´s economic policy is the main problem faced by Latin American countries at the moment according to 67.4% of the experts consulted by the Latin America Economic Survey. It is followed by political instability (36.9%) and corruption (25.2%). In this scenario, uncertainties regarding recovery in the region’s economic growth have affected expectations due to the lack of confidence in economic policy guidelines. In addition, structural problems such as lack of innovation, inadequate infrastructure, and increased income inequality are highlighted as relevant issues for the countries’ economic growth.
The Global Economic Barometers declined once again in November, continuing the weakening that started in the third quarter. Despite falling in all regions, the Coincident Barometer remains above 100 points. However, the Leading Barometer remains below 100 for a second consecutive month, albeit with a less pronounced decline in November.
In October, the Global Economic Barometers maintain the weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in World economic growth in the second half of 2021. The more intense fall of the Leading Barometer suggests a possible intensification of this tendency in the next three to six months.