Press Releases

The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise in September for the fourth consecutive month, mainly due to slightly more favourable assessments and clearly brighter expectations in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.

In the 2nd quarter of 2025, the behavior of the largest economies reflected this diversity: Brazil and Mexico showed improvement, while Argentina and Colombia recorded a deterioration compared to the beginning of the year. This variety of dynamics becomes even clearer when analyzing the entire group of countries. In addition to the large markets, Paraguay and Ecuador stood out for their progress, while Peru experienced the sharpest contraction.   

The ISA grew in four economies, with Ecuador (+43.8 points) standing out. Only Paraguay and Peru recorded positive ISA scores. Mexico's progress (+18.6 points) and Brazil's stability were decisive for the 10.6-point increase in the regional ISA, which reached 73.4 points in the second quarter of 2025. However, the environment remains volatile, largely due to changes in the Trump administration's foreign policies, especially on the trade and migration agendas, which increase uncertainty. Thus, the improvement in the ISA should be interpreted with caution, as it may be reversed in the coming quarters.  

The IE advanced in five countries, remained stable in two (Ecuador and Uruguay), and fell in the rest. The positive highlight was Chile (+32.5 points), while Peru had the largest decline (-57.5 points). The 5.1-point increase in the regional IE to 82.9 points highlights the uncertainty ahead, even though the indicator remains above 100 points in four economies. 

The Coincident and Leading Barometers rise slightly in June, breaking a sequence of three consecutive declines. However, the outlook for global economic growth remains lower in the first half of the year than expected at the beginning of the year.

The Coincident Barometer decreases for the second consecutive month and returns to the level of September 2024. The fall in the Leading Barometer keeps the indicator generally slightly above 100 points, a tendency that has been observed since May 2024. However, the recent escalation in the trade tensions is not reflected in the data.

In March, the coincident and leading Global Barometers show diverging movements. While the Coincident Barometer declines after a slight increase last month, the Leading Barometer rises for the second month in a row.

The Global Barometers increase slightly in February, partially recovering the losses of the previous month. The results indicate a possible consolidation of these levels for the indicators, after an upward tendency was indicated at the end of 2024.   ​​​​​​​

The decrease in the Global Barometers in January suggests a pullback after the rise recorded in the last quarter of 2024. With the decline, the Coincident Barometer is moving away from the 100-point mark. However, the Leading Barometer remains above 100 points, indicating a continued positive outlook for the performance of the world economy in the first half of 2025.

The Global Barometers remain relatively stable in December, after the noticeably increases recorded in the previous month. The Coincident Barometer slips slightly in  relation to November but ends the quarter at a more favourable level than the previous quarter, signalling overall an acceleration in global economic growth. The Leading Barometer, in turn, increases this month and suggests an increase in confidence among companies and consumers in relation to the end of the previous quarter.

After remaining practically stable for most of the year, the Global Barometers increase more markedly in November. The region Asia, Pacific & Africa stands out in the development of the Coincident barometer, which records its highest level since April 2022.

The Global Barometers record a small increase in October, largely offsetting the previous month’s decline. The Coincident Barometer continues to signal economic development below the medium-term average, while the leading barometer continues to point to a normalisation of growth in the coming months.  ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​