The Global Barometers fall slightly in February consolidating the baseline reached since December 2021. Back then, the indices rose following five months of significant losses. The coincident indicator signals a still above average pace for the global economy in the first months of 2022. The leading indicator indicates a continuing normalisation.
After declining throughout most of the second semester of 2021, the Global Economic Barometers rise in January for the second consecutive month. The Coincident Barometer remains above the historical mean, while the Leading Barometer returns to the neutral range of 100 points.
The lack of confidence in the government´s economic policy is the main problem faced by Latin American countries at the moment according to 67.4% of the experts consulted by the Latin America Economic Survey. It is followed by political instability (36.9%) and corruption (25.2%). In this scenario, uncertainties regarding recovery in the region’s economic growth have affected expectations due to the lack of confidence in economic policy guidelines. In addition, structural problems such as lack of innovation, inadequate infrastructure, and increased income inequality are highlighted as relevant issues for the countries’ economic growth.
The Global Economic Barometers declined once again in November, continuing the weakening that started in the third quarter. Despite falling in all regions, the Coincident Barometer remains above 100 points. However, the Leading Barometer remains below 100 for a second consecutive month, albeit with a less pronounced decline in November.
In October, the Global Economic Barometers maintain the weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in World economic growth in the second half of 2021. The more intense fall of the Leading Barometer suggests a possible intensification of this tendency in the next three to six months.
In September, the Global Economic Barometers maintain their weakening tendency that started in July, reflecting the slowdown in world economic growth in the second half of 2021. Despite the fall, the indicator levels remain high and compatible with the continuity of the current phase of recovery of the world economy.
Between the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2021, the Economic Climate Index (ECI) for Latin America by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) increased for the fifth successive quarter, reaching 99.7 points, the best result since the 1st quarter of 2018 (101.5 pts), and is closing in on the neutrality level of 100 points.
The fall in the Global Economic Barometers in August indicates a slowdown in world economic growth rates for the second half of 2021. Despite their decline, the indicators remain at a high level consistent with the continuation of the current recovery phase in global economic activity.
The Coincident Global Barometer keeps the upward tendency and reaches its highest historical level in June. Moving in the opposite direction the Leading Barometer decreases, but after having risen markedly in the three previous months.
The Economic Climate Index (ECI) for Latin America by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) increased from 70.5 to 81.2 points between the first and second quarters of 2021. Despite the 10.7-point rise, the index remains in the adverse zone of the economic cycle with a combination of unfavorable assessments regarding the present situation and optimistic expectations regarding the near future. Therefore, the result is similar to that observed in the Survey in the 1st quarter.