The Leading Economic Index or Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), rose 1.9 percent in July to 111.5. Six out of the eight components that comprise the index contributed positively, with the largest contributions coming from the Manufacturing Expectations Index and the Consumer Expectations Index
The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers are rising in August, sustaining the tendency towards a world economic rebound. While the Coincident Barometer continues to gradually move away from the trough of the crisis, the Leading Barometer has advanced faster, signalling confidence for the recovery of world GDP in the coming months. This result should be interpreted cautiously given the high degree of uncertainty on both the economic and health fronts.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), rose 7.0 percent in June to 107.2. Of the eight components that comprise the index, seven contributed positively, with the largest positive contribution coming from the Manufacturing Survey´s Expectations Index.
The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers have risen for the second consecutive month in July, indicating a gradual recovery of the world economy. Although the numbers have begun moving away from the trough of the crisis, further developments remain uncertain, both on the economic and the health front.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), rose 1.0 percent in May to 94.7, after declining almost 17 percent in the previous month. The cumulative change for the last six months remained negative, at 20.2 percent. Of the eight component series, the Expectations Indices for Services, Consumers, and Manufacturing were contributed most positively to the result.
The Economic Climate Index (ECI) in Latin America by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) — went to 60.4 negative points from 14.1 negative points between January and April 2020, the worst result in the historical series since January 1989. The lowest previous level had occurred in January 2009, shortly after the 2008 financial crisis, when the ECI had reached 48.7 negative points. The indicator, which had remained on negative ground and declining since April 2018, had recovered somewhat from the losses in the January 2020 survey, compared to October 2019, but has now been brought down by the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Coincident and Leading Barometers for the Global Economy for May demonstrate a deepening of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. After the third and so far most significant of these three declines, the two indicators reached the lowest levels of their respective series since their beginning in 1991. This signals an unprecedented impact of the pandemic on World GDP for the second quarter of 2020.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), released by FGV/IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), decreased 4.7 percent in March to 114.5, the biggest drop since November 2008. The cumulative change in the last six months was also negative, at 3.5 percent. March’s decrease was fueled by negative contributions from six of the eight components, with the largest coming from the Expectations Index of the Services Sector Survey, and by the Bovespa Index, which decreased 18.3 percent and 29.9 percent at the margin, respectively.
In the April 2020 edition, theGlobal Leading Barometer andthe Global Coincident Barometerhave fallensharply, reflecting the impact of the Covid-19pandemic on the world economy. The second consecutive decrease in the two barometers shows that the economies of all regions were seriously shaken by the pandemic.