The Economic Climate Index (ECI) for Latin America falls in the 2nd quarter of 2023, influenced by the worsening
of evaluations on the present economic situation. Expectations have improved but remain in the adverse zone.
According to the specialists consulted, the lack of confidence in local economic policy continues to be one of
the main problems for economic growth in the region
The Global Barometers rise only slightly in May, reflecting continued weakness in global economic activity in most countries and moderate optimism, partly related to the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy.
The levels of the Global Barometers remained almost unchanged in April, halting the recovery tendency observed earlier this year. The result was mainly influenced by the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, where the indicators retreated after two noticeably rises.
The Global Barometers rise for the second consecutive month in March 2023, fueled by the favorable evolution in the economic environment of the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
The Economic Climate Index (ECI) for Latin America rises between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the 1st quarter of 2023, with improvements in six of the 10 main countries surveyed. Brazil moves in the opposite direction with an additional fall in the ECI driven by the indicator for the Present Situation.
The Global Barometers continue to signal a pronounced world economic slowdown at the beginning of 2023. Both indicators record a fall for the month and reach levels which – excluding the worst period of the COVID-19 crisis – have not been seen since 2009. The latest results are particularly depressed by developments of the indicators in the Asia, Pacific & Africa region.
The Economic Climate for Latin America improves, but remains adverse.
The Economic Climate Index (ECI) for Latin America rises between the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2022, influenced by improved perceptions regarding the present moment. Brazil recorded an increase of 30 points on the ECI, of 49.4 points on the PSI and 10.2 points on the EI. The less expressive rise in the EI in relation to the PSI, and its decrease in certain countries indicates that the economic growth scenario for the next six months is likely to slow down in the region. Forecasts of lower GDP growth rates for 2023 in relation to 2022 corroborate the specialists’ caution regarding the coming months.
The Global Barometers fall once again in November after a slight improvement in the previous month. With the results, the Coincident Barometer reaches its lowest level since August 2020 and the Leading Barometer is the second lowest since June 2020, beating only the level of last August.
The Global Barometers increase in February for the first time since November 2022 across all regions, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region standing out for the improved climate in the region.
The Coincident Barometer rises after eight consecutive falls and the Leading Barometer increases for the second month in a row. Because the improvement is only modest, the level of the indicators continues to reflect an adverse scenario for world economic growth in the coming months.