The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers move in opposite directions in October. The Coincident Barometer maintains a rising tendency, albeit at a clearly slower pace than in the previous months. Despite its decline, the Leading Barometer continues to show a recovery in global GDP. The slowdown, respectively decline in the indicators suggest that after a first strong rebound, the pace of recovery is to weaken.
The Leading Economic Index for Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), rose 1.1 percent in August to 117.8 points, 2.2 points below the pre-pandemic period in Brazil (February 2020). Of the eight components that comprise the index, four contributed positively, with the largest contribution coming from the Manufacturing Survey’s Expectations Index.
The Global Economic Barometers maintain their upward tendencies that began in May, after historic lows in April. The Coincident Barometer has reduced its upward pace and still reflects economic activity levels well below those before the Covid-19 pandemic. The Leading Barometer, on the other hand, reaches its highest level since 2010, signalling continued optimism regarding upcoming world GDP developments. Given the high levels of uncertainty, this should be interpreted with caution.
The Economic Climate Index (ECI) in Latin America by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV)1 advanced in the third quarter of 2020, cruising from 59,92 up to 43,2 negative points. The index is still in the unfavorable zone of the economic cycle, however, if compared to that of the second quarter, registered a gain of 16,7 points.
The Leading Economic Index or Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), rose 1.9 percent in July to 111.5. Six out of the eight components that comprise the index contributed positively, with the largest contributions coming from the Manufacturing Expectations Index and the Consumer Expectations Index
The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers are rising in August, sustaining the tendency towards a world economic rebound. While the Coincident Barometer continues to gradually move away from the trough of the crisis, the Leading Barometer has advanced faster, signalling confidence for the recovery of world GDP in the coming months. This result should be interpreted cautiously given the high degree of uncertainty on both the economic and health fronts.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), rose 7.0 percent in June to 107.2. Of the eight components that comprise the index, seven contributed positively, with the largest positive contribution coming from the Manufacturing Survey´s Expectations Index.
The Coincident and Leading Global Economic Barometers have risen for the second consecutive month in July, indicating a gradual recovery of the world economy. Although the numbers have begun moving away from the trough of the crisis, further developments remain uncertain, both on the economic and the health front.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), published by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), rose 1.0 percent in May to 94.7, after declining almost 17 percent in the previous month. The cumulative change for the last six months remained negative, at 20.2 percent. Of the eight component series, the Expectations Indices for Services, Consumers, and Manufacturing were contributed most positively to the result.