The Economic Climate Index (ECI) in Latin America by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) — went to 60.4 negative points from 14.1 negative points between January and April 2020, the worst result in the historical series since January 1989. The lowest previous level had occurred in January 2009, shortly after the 2008 financial crisis, when the ECI had reached 48.7 negative points. The indicator, which had remained on negative ground and declining since April 2018, had recovered somewhat from the losses in the January 2020 survey, compared to October 2019, but has now been brought down by the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Coincident and Leading Barometers for the Global Economy for May demonstrate a deepening of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. After the third and so far most significant of these three declines, the two indicators reached the lowest levels of their respective series since their beginning in 1991. This signals an unprecedented impact of the pandemic on World GDP for the second quarter of 2020.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), released by FGV/IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), decreased 4.7 percent in March to 114.5, the biggest drop since November 2008. The cumulative change in the last six months was also negative, at 3.5 percent. March’s decrease was fueled by negative contributions from six of the eight components, with the largest coming from the Expectations Index of the Services Sector Survey, and by the Bovespa Index, which decreased 18.3 percent and 29.9 percent at the margin, respectively.
In the April 2020 edition, theGlobal Leading Barometer andthe Global Coincident Barometerhave fallensharply, reflecting the impact of the Covid-19pandemic on the world economy. The second consecutive decrease in the two barometers shows that the economies of all regions were seriously shaken by the pandemic.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), released by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), decreased 0.8 percent in February to 119.2, after reaching the highest level of the historical series last month. Six of the eight component series contributed negatively to the decline, with the largest contribution from the Consumer Expectations Index, which declined 5.8 percent at the margin.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), released by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), decreased 0.8 percent in February to 119.2, after reaching the highest level of the historical series last month. Six of the eight component series contributed negatively to the decline, with the largest contribution from the Consumer Expectations Index, which declined 5.8 percent at the margin.
The two Global Economic Barometers show how much the coronavirus epidemic has already impacted the prospects for the global economy. Both, the Leading Barometer for global economic development and the Coincident Barometer are declining sharply. These are the lowest values for both Barometers since 2009. However, the considerable spread of the epidemic beyond the Asian region has not yet been taken into account in most input variables. Nevertheless, the Global Barometers show that the coronavirus epidemic is triggering shock waves for the global economy.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), released by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), increased by 1.0 percent in December, to 119.7, the highest index level on record. Seven out of the eight components of LEI contributed positively to the most recent increase, with the largest positive drive from the Industry Expectations Index and The Bovespa Index.
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), released by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), increased 0.6 percent in November, to 118.5. Four of the eight LEI components contributed positively to the index last month, with the largest positive contributions coming from the Services Sector and Manufacturing Expectations Index
The Leading Economic Index® for Brazil (LEI), released by FGV IBRE in partnership with The Conference Board (TCB), decreased 0.1 percent in October, to 117.8. Five of the eight LEI’s components contributed negatively to the index, with the largest negative contribution coming from the Service Sector Expectations Index.