The Brazilian Institute of Economics at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV/IBRE) and The Conference Board (TCB), a global independent business membership and research organization, produce a monthly indicator designed to anticipate the ebb and flow of the business cycle in the Brazilian economy: the The Conference Board/FGV Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for Brazil.
The indicator allows a direct comparison of the economic cycles of Brazil with those of 11 other countries and regions already covered by TCB: the United States, the Euro Area, China, Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Korea, and Mexico.
Complementary to the LEI, FGV/IBRE and The Conference Board coordinate the The Conference Board/FGV Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Brazil, which measures current economic conditions on a monthly basis, helping to pinpoint cycles’ beginnings and ends and illustrating current growth and the intensity of economic activity.
Plotted back to 1996, the Brazil LEI would have reliably anticipated all four recessions identified by the Brazilian Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE) during this period.
To access the publications of this Indicator click the links below:
•Results: Click on Categoryand selectCoincident and Preceding Indicators.
•Media: InCategory selectCoincident and Preceding Indicators.
Economic Cycle Indicators
LEI Components: The components of the LEI for Brazil are: Expectations Indexes from IBRE’s Manufacturing Survey, Services Sector Survey and Consumer Expectations Survey; Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods – Index; Exports - Quantum – Index; Terms of Trade – Index; Ibovespa – Bovespa Index; Swap DI pre-fixed - 360 days.
CEI Components: The components of the CEI for Brazil are: Industrial production index; Electricity consumption in industry; Volume of sales in the retail market; Number of employees; Real income.
Release: July 2013
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