Barometers fail to continue their upward series


In February, the Coincident Global Economic Barometer falls by 1.6 points and the Leading Barometer by 6.0 points to 92.4 and 105.5 points, respectively. In both cases, the Asia, Pacific & Africa region is the largest contributor to the decline, with the other regions contributing more discreetly in different directions. The gap between the two indicators has narrowed this month, but remains high at 13.1 points.
“The framework of the Global Barometers over the previous months mostly reflected the better than previously forecast performance of the world economy, with the American resilience and the improved environment in China and East Asia standing out. The result for February represents a calibration of expectations, demonstrating that growth in 2024 – even if it is higher than previously forecast – remains below that of the mean for the 20 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is due to the impact of prolonged monetary tightening in most countries and risks of high prices in commodities due to successive geopolitical shocks in various regions, but especially in the Middle East”, evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., researcher of FGV IBRE.

Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors 

The decline in the Coincident Barometer in February is mainly driven by the indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, with a negative contribution of -1.6 points, as the contributions from  Europe and the Western Hemisphere of -0.2 and +0.2 points, respectively, offset each other this month. The regional coincident indicators continue to hover above the 90 mark, pointing to a modest recovery in world economic activity. The graph below shows the contribution of each region to the deviation of the Coincident Barometer from its historical average of 100 points. 
Among the Coincident sector indicators, all declined in February, particularly Construction, which returned to the 80-point range, and recorded the lowest level among the indicators.

Leading Barometer – regions and sectors  

The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by an average of three to six months. In February, the largest negative contribution comes from the Asia, Pacific & Africa region, with -6.1 points. The Western Hemisphere makes a modest contribution of -0.2 points, while Europe moves in the opposite direction, adding 0.3 points to the final indicator. The indicator for the Asia, Pacific & Africa region reflects a revision of the positive outlook recorded in the previous month, while the expectations for Europe and the Western Hemisphere remain side-by-side at a level that is still favorable.
In February, all the Leading sector indicators declined, with Economy (aggregated business and consumer evaluations) being the